USDINR CMP- 82.88 (spot)

Commenting on the Dollar and Rupee outlook Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas said that, Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.12% on Wednesday on broad sell-off in domestic markets and selling pressure by foreign investors. A positive US Dollar and disappointing macroeconomic data from India also weighed on the Rupee. India’s CPI rose 5.09% y-o-y in February 2024 vs 5.1% in January 2024 but higher than forecast of 5.01%. India’s IIP increased by 3.8% y-o-y in January 2024, at a slower pace vs 4.2% in December 2023. US Dollar gained on hotter than expected inflation in US. US CPI rose 3.2% y-o-y in February 2024 vs 3.1% in January 2024 and forecast of 3.1%. Core CPI rose 3.8% y-o-y in February 2024 vs 3.8% in January 2024 and forecast of 3.7%.

“We expect Rupee to trade with a negative bias on concerns over weakness in the domestic markets and extended selling by FIIs. Elevated crude oil prices may also weigh on Rupee. However, positive global markets may support Rupee. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 82.70 to Rs 83.10,” added Choudhary.

Commenting on derivative outlook outlook Anand James, Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Financial Services said, Nifty weekly contract has highest open interest at 22500 for Calls and 21700 for Puts while monthly contracts have highest open interest at 23000 for Calls and 21000 for Puts. Highest new OI addition was seen at 22300 for Calls and 19850 for Puts in weekly and at 22200 for Calls and 21700 for Puts in monthly contracts.

“FIIs decreased their future index long position holdings by 2.65%, increased future index shorts by 9.09% and in index options by 1.32% increase in Call longs, 12.49% increase in Call short, 0.98% increase in Put longs and 4.29% increase in Put shorts,” added James.

“Downward mobility of CPI numbers and steady WPI numbers orchestrates well for the growth fundamentals of the Indian economy. Manufactured product inflation continues to be in the negative territory with most components having eased due to several causes. This should give Policymakers enough to take notice and possibly soften their policy stance. It must be noted however that a rise in oil prices could pose an elevated risk on wholesale and retail inflation,” said Dheer Shah, CFO, BDR Pharma.

The stock of SJVN rose 15% to get quoted at an intraday high of Rs 116.40 compared to its previous close of Rs 101.20. The stock has an upper band set at 20% or 121.40. The shares of the company touched its 52-week-high of Rs 170.50 on February 5.

The broking firm Morgan Stanley in a research report said that ITC’s share price will outperform the benchmark indices of India over the next 30 days. The rationale the brokerage firm gave was that the stake sale by British American Tobacco cleared the supply overhang on the stock.

To give context, ITC has underperformed the markets by 8%. The brokerage believes that the company is scaling up its non-cigarette businesses. Also, a moderate and infrequent cigarette tax environment becoming an important catalyst for the stock’s performance.  

Morgan has a target price of Rs 491 on the stock of ITC with a rating of “overweight”. The stock of ITC rose to an intraday high of 8% on March 13 before closing at Rs 422.45.

The sectoral index was trading highest among its peers.

Courtesy: NSE

Commenting on the gold outlook The recent Colin Shah, MD of Kama Jewelry said that, US inflation numbers turning out sticky have led to gold prices inching higher, thereby slashing the chances of a rate cut by the US Fed. This uncertainty will directly reflect in further volatility when it comes to gold prices in the international market. Rise in inflation can have a direct impact on Indian gold exports as The USA is one of the largest importing markets after China.

“This along with a higher US Dollar index will lead to a further lead to spike in gold rates, inching closer to the Rs 70,000  mark,” added Shah.

Commenting on the technical outlook of Nifty, Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, suggests that if Nifty remains above 22040 early in the day, downward movements could extend initially to 21860-790. To observe strength in recovery attempts, a direct rise above 22145 is needed. However, James also advises caution regarding bearish exhaustion if declines extend to 21400.

Gopal Snacks makes a weak debut by listing at Rs 351, a discount of 12.5% to the issue price. The company set the price band of Rs 381 to 401 per equity share. The ethnic snack company raised Rs 650 crore from the investors by offering them an entirely fresh issue of 16.2 million shares.

The company’s stock was seeing a discount of over 6% in the grey market. It is an unofficial market where shares change hands illegally before listing on bourses. 

Paytm parent share One97 Communication tumbled 4.8% to an intra-day low of Rs 334.25 on the National Stock Exchange on March 14, a day before the company’s Paytm Payments Bank is about to cease its operations. The company’s stock fell nearly 5% intra-day for the third consecutive day. 

After March 15 customers won’t be able to withdraw money from Paytm Payments Bank. The company’s stock is quoting at a discount of 198% from its 52-week-high of Rs 998, which it touched on October 20, 2023. The stock has a lower band set at Rs 333.40.

Hindustan Aeronautics has surged nearly 3% during early trading hours today. This upswing follows an announcement by the defence ministry regarding two lucrative contracts valued at Rs 8,073 crore, aimed at procuring 34 advanced light helicopters and associated equipment for the Indian Army and the Coast Guard.

HAL’s shares soared by more than 3% to reach Rs 3,136.70 on the BSE, marking a substantial increase from the previous day’s closing value of Rs 3,039.90. The market capitalization of HAL also witnessed a commendable climb, reaching Rs 2.08 lakh crore. Trading activity saw a turnover of Rs 19.14 crore, with 0.62 lakh shares changing hands.

Reliance Industries stocks surged over 1% during Thursday morning trading, propelled by the announcement of Paramount Global’s decision to divest its 13% stake in its Indian TV business.

The deal, valued at Rs 4,286 crore, has been finalized through a binding agreement between Reliance and two subsidiaries of Paramount Global.

On the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), Reliance’s shares soared by 1.13% to reach Rs 2,897.35, while on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), they climbed 1.14% to Rs 2,897.05. This development contributed to the company’s market valuation, which stood at an impressive Rs 19,52,171.94 crore during early trading hours.

The NSE Nifty 50 was up 180 points at 22,176, while the 30-stock sensex was up nearly 500 points at 73,260.

Share of Adani Enterprises rose more than 4% to an intraday high of Rs 3,027. The stock was the top gainer in the Nifty 50. The stock touched its 52-week-high of Rs 3,350 on March 4. The stock of Adani Enterprises has an upper band of Rs 3,196.80.

Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports & SEZ, Hindalco, Hero MotoCorp, and BPCL were the major gainers in the Nifty 50. While Bajaj Finance, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, TCS, and LTIMindtree were the key laggards in the Nifty 50 on March 14.

ITC, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bajaj Finance, and Cipla were the top gainers in the Nifty 50. While Power Gris Corp, Coal India, Adani Enterprises, NTPC, and Adani Ports & SEZ were the major losers in the Nifty 50 on March 14.

Courtesy: NSE

Bank Nifty held on to the 20-day average (46962) and managed to close above that. With participation coming in from Key heavyweights like ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, and Kotak Bank we expect it to hold on to the support zone 46900 – 46700 and recover, said Jatin Gedia, technical research analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Aditya Birla Fashion, Hindustan Copper, Manappuram Finance, National Aluminium, Piramal Enterprise, RBL Bank, Sail, Tata Chemical, and Zee Entertainment Enterprise were in the F&O ban list on Thursday.

Foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares net worth Rs 4,595.06 crore. Similarly, domestic institutional investors (DII) bought shares net worth Rs 9,093.72 crore on March 13, 2024, according to the provisional data available on the NSE.

WTI crude prices were trading at $79.83 up by 0.14%, while Brent crude prices were trading at $84.12 up by 0.17%, on Thursday morning.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar’s value against a basket of six foreign currencies, traded marginally higher, 0.01% at 102.80.

The equity indices in the US closed on a mixed note. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite pulled back 0.54% to close at 16,177.77. While the S&P 500 slid 0.19% to settle at 5,165.31. Bucking the trend, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 37.83 points or 0.1% to 39,043.32.